🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."