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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.